BFCM Insights backed by klaviyo data
The 2025 BFCM season is off to a strong start
Your first look at what’s up, flat, and down in ecommerce so far this peak season
Consumer intent is driving an unexpectedly strong start.
The peak season is officially underway, and it’s off to a stronger start than predicted. Through the first two weeks of November, ecommerce GMV is up 13% year over year, surpassing Klaviyo’s projection of 11.5%.
The data signals a powerful start to the 2025 holiday season in which shoppers are buying earlier, browsing more, and engaging more deeply with the brands they already know. But beneath that headline of growth lies a subtle shift in where that spending is coming from, and what it means for marketers.
In short, repeat shoppers are driving growth, SMS is surging, browsing is booming, and order values are steady. Discounts, meanwhile, are holding flat, suggesting brands are being more strategic and reserving their deepest offers for the critical BFCM window to come.
The data signals a powerful start to the 2025 holiday season in which shoppers are buying earlier, browsing more, and engaging more deeply with the brands they already know. But beneath that headline of growth lies a subtle shift in where that spending is coming from, and what it means for marketers.
In short, repeat shoppers are driving growth, SMS is surging, browsing is booming, and order values are steady. Discounts, meanwhile, are holding flat, suggesting brands are being more strategic and reserving their deepest offers for the critical BFCM window to come.
Insight one
Loyalty is leading the way
Repeat shoppers are driving early-season gains
So far, the story of peak season 2025 is one of loyalty over novelty. Repeat buyers are powering ecommerce growth, with repeat purchase revenue up 18.3% year over year, compared to a 7% lift from new buyers.
For marketers, this means early November belongs to your most loyal customers. They’re shopping early, responding to personalized offers, and anchoring GMV before the big deal days even begin.
For marketers, this means early November belongs to your most loyal customers. They’re shopping early, responding to personalized offers, and anchoring GMV before the big deal days even begin.
What to do with this insight
Activate your VIP and repeat purchase flows in Klaviyo now, before Cyber Week.
Use predictive analytics to identify high-likelihood repeat purchasers and serve them personalized replenishment or complementary offers.
Deliver exclusive early-access or loyalty-tier offers via text message and email to make these customers feel recognized, not just retargeted.
Use predictive analytics to identify high-likelihood repeat purchasers and serve them personalized replenishment or complementary offers.
Deliver exclusive early-access or loyalty-tier offers via text message and email to make these customers feel recognized, not just retargeted.
Insight Two
The texting surge continues
Engagement and conversion gains show CRM strength
Revenue from text messages ahead of BFCM for the same cohort of brands has climbed 37.8% year over year, outpacing even the 34.8% increase in message sends. This data is from same-store sales, which means it is looking at brands that had texts live last year, too, and excludes those that added it as a channel in 2025.
Text productivity, measured by revenue per send, is improving even as volume rises. This early-season momentum highlights a shift toward CRM-led growth. As acquisition costs climb, owned channels like text and email are proving their value as both efficient and high-converting.
Text productivity, measured by revenue per send, is improving even as volume rises. This early-season momentum highlights a shift toward CRM-led growth. As acquisition costs climb, owned channels like text and email are proving their value as both efficient and high-converting.
What to do with this insight
Sync cross-channel storytelling between email, text, and even WhatsApp using Klaviyo’s omnichannel campaign builder.
Leverage Klaviyo’s automation and segmentation tools to trigger timely, personalized messages based on browse and cart activity.
Measure ROI by tracking revenue per message to continuously refine send cadence.
Leverage Klaviyo’s automation and segmentation tools to trigger timely, personalized messages based on browse and cart activity.
Measure ROI by tracking revenue per message to continuously refine send cadence.
Insight THREE
Shoppers are browsing, and buying with intent
Product views are up 35%, showing strong discovery ahead of Black Friday
Shoppers are in discovery mode, but they’re not sitting on the sidelines. Product views have jumped 35% over the past two weeks, continuing the browsing boom seen earlier this quarter.
The surge points to high intent as shoppers are actively researching and comparing, even as they pace purchases ahead of the big Black Friday weekend.
The surge points to high intent as shoppers are actively researching and comparing, even as they pace purchases ahead of the big Black Friday weekend.
What to do with this insight
Treat browsing as your early warning system. Use browse abandonment flows to re-engage shoppers while intent is high.
Layer in AI-powered recommendations to showcase products viewed or related items.
Send educational or value-based content (e.g., holiday lookbooks or gifting guides) to nurture shoppers until they’re ready to convert.
Layer in AI-powered recommendations to showcase products viewed or related items.
Send educational or value-based content (e.g., holiday lookbooks or gifting guides) to nurture shoppers until they’re ready to convert.
Insight FOUR
Average order values hold steady
Prices are stable as brands resist early discounting
Despite expectations that inflation would drive price increases this year, order values during the first few weeks of the season show otherwise. Average order value (AOV) remained nearly flat compared to last year: +1.3% overall and only +0.6% for repeat buyers. While margin pressure on brands is real, that squeeze has seemingly not been passed on to the shopper.
What to do with this insight
Use Klaviyo’s A/B testing and reporting to compare bundle offers vs. early discounts.
Trigger up- and cross-sell automations post-purchase to boost AOV organically.
Identify segments most likely to spend more and tailor gift set recommendations or “complete the look” nudges for them.
Trigger up- and cross-sell automations post-purchase to boost AOV organically.
Identify segments most likely to spend more and tailor gift set recommendations or “complete the look” nudges for them.
Insight FIVE
Discounts are flat, but the stage is set
Promotional pressure is holding, and likely to rise soon
So far, discounts are essentially flat year over year, averaging 13.7% compared to 13.4% last November. That stability, combined with slower Black Friday messaging in inboxes (down from 21.5% to 18.9%), suggests brands are pacing themselves.
The real test comes next: will consumers hold out for bigger deals, or will strong early-season performance convince brands to maintain margin discipline?
The real test comes next: will consumers hold out for bigger deals, or will strong early-season performance convince brands to maintain margin discipline?
What to do with this insight
Lead with value-based offers, like bundles, early access, or loyalty perks, before turning to blanket discounts.
Time your strongest deals for the Cyber Week stretch when intent peaks.
Use Klaviyo’s A/B testing to test discount depth against engagement or conversion rates.
Time your strongest deals for the Cyber Week stretch when intent peaks.
Use Klaviyo’s A/B testing to test discount depth against engagement or conversion rates.
Data-driven brands are winning early.
The 2025 peak season is already proving that connection beats promotion. Growth is coming from relationships (i.e., repeat shoppers, owned channels, and high-intent browsing), not deep discounts or impulsive sales spikes.
As the BFCM crescendo approaches, brands that use their CRM data, predictive analytics, and AI-powered personalization to stay ahead of consumer intent will sustain momentum through December and beyond.
As the BFCM crescendo approaches, brands that use their CRM data, predictive analytics, and AI-powered personalization to stay ahead of consumer intent will sustain momentum through December and beyond.
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More BFCM insights
1 in 4 dollars is made in peak season, or November and December
While consumer surveys suggest that holiday shopping starts earlier each year, Klaviyo’s data tells a more nuanced story. Read more
Holiday browsing spikes just 10 days before Black Friday
The path from intent to purchase for BFCM is shorter than many think. The real bump in browsing begins only 10 days before Black Friday. Read more
BFCM is the single biggest new-customer event of the year
Brands see more new buyers during peak season than the prior 3 months combined. New shoppers are flooding in, repeat customers are buying differently, and SMS is driving more growth than ever. Read more
BFCM 2025 is set to be the biggest and most dynamic season in recent memory
From early shopping and deeper discounts to the rise of loyalty and SMS growth—discover six BFCM 2025 trends shaping this year’s peak season. Read more.
It’s the year of the browse
Ecommerce is in its “browsing boom.” Product views across ecommerce sites are up 37% year over year, while order growth has risen 14%. Read more.
Consumer behavior shifts are already impacting BFCM predictions
Shopping is about to hit its peak season. But this year’s surge will look different from those before it. Read more.